Providing a Continuous Risk-Monitoring Model in the Banking Sector Based on Grounded Data

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present a model for continuous risk monitoring in the banking sector based on grounded data. The damage resulting from the non-payment of the principal or interest of a loan is referred to as credit risk. Collateral and guarantees in debt contracts play several roles, including protecting the interests of lenders in the event of default. Moreover, collateral helps improve lending conditions by reducing moral hazard and information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers. In the meta-synthesis stage, a theoretical–deductive analysis is conducted as the first step in the multi-grounded theory approach. The objective of this step is to identify valid, credible, and relevant documents within an appropriate time frame. To this end, articles, books, and reputable national and international organizational websites were reviewed. The first step in meta-synthesis involves formulating the research questions based on the dimensions of grounded theory. In the second step, the researcher systematically searches published articles in reputable domestic and international scientific journals to determine valid and credible documents within the appropriate period. Initially, relevant keywords—individually or in combination—were examined in both Persian and English for the years 2013 to 2024, and for English-language articles for the years 1980 to 2023. Ultimately, 34 articles were identified. The research data were analyzed using a coding method, and the main categories and concepts were extracted. A conceptual model was developed through which the components related to continuous risk monitoring in the banking sector were identified. Based on this model, the most important causal conditions that may influence banking-sector risk include market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, and strategic risk. The research model showed that continuous risk monitoring in the banking sector may lead to consequences such as communication and access to information issues, information technology and system failures, public security breaches, challenges in obtaining long-term financing, reduction in the value of the credit portfolio, and decreased customer and investor trust.