Developing a Strategic Spatial Planning Model for Managing Urban Expansion in Kabul

Mohammad Mansoor  Pirozy; Azita Rajabi

Authors

Mohammad Mansoor Pirozy Ph.D. Student, Department of Urban Planning, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8066-3321
Azita Rajabi Department of Geography and Urban Planning, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3022-203X

Keywords:

Strategic Spatial Planning; Urban Expansion; Urban Growth Management; GIS; Spatial Suitability; Urban Governance; Kabul

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and validate an integrated strategic spatial planning model for managing urban expansion in Kabul by combining expert-based analysis, quantitative structural validation, historical urban-growth assessment, and GIS-based spatial suitability analysis. An applied mixed-method design was employed. In the qualitative phase, 24 experts in urban and regional planning, GIS, municipal management, infrastructure, environmental planning, housing, and land management were selected purposively and interviewed using semi-structured interviews. The resulting themes were used to construct a 62-item questionnaire. In the quantitative phase, 280 professionals participated. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis, and structural equation modeling. Spatial analysis was conducted using GIS-based change detection and multi-criteria suitability assessment for Kabul's urbanized and peripheral areas. The structural model showed that demographic and socioeconomic pressures strongly predicted urban expansion pressure (β = 0.71, p < 0.001), while physical and land-use conditions also had a significant effect (β = 0.42, p < 0.001). Institutional and governance capacity was the strongest predictor of strategic urban growth management (β = 0.47, p < 0.001), followed by transportation and infrastructure (β = 0.29), physical and land-use conditions (β = 0.26), environmental considerations (β = 0.23), demographic pressures (β = 0.21), and public-service accessibility (β = 0.19), all p < 0.001. The model explained 72% of the variance in strategic urban growth management and demonstrated satisfactory fit (χ²/df = 1.90, RMSEA = 0.057, CFI = 0.935). Effective management of Kabul's urban expansion requires an integrated framework combining controlled growth, infrastructure sequencing, environmental protection, urban consolidation, institutional coordination, and continuous GIS-based monitoring rather than reliance on conventional outward land expansion.

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