Factors Affecting Economic Resilience for Transition from an Oil-Based Economy

Abstract

Given Iran’s dependence on an oil-based economy—which has been a major factor in the emergence of structural problems and challenges within the national economy—evaluating the economic vulnerabilities resulting from sanctions on Iranian oil exports from various perspectives is crucial for achieving a resilient economy. The main objective of the present study is to compare the resilience of a knowledge-based economy with that of an oil-dependent economy and to assess the resilience of the entrepreneurial sector within Iran’s economy. Numerous indicators have been proposed for measuring resilience; among them, two variables—employment rate and economic growth rate (specifically, the growth rate of value added in knowledge-based [high-tech and medium-tech] sectors and in the oil sector)—will be utilized. To select the variables, key studies in the field of resilience have been reviewed, based on which the independent variables of this study include economic shocks such as sanctions, oil sector shocks, foreign trade shocks, patents and innovations, innovation index, exports and imports of knowledge-based products, and imports of capital goods, which represent the most important explanatory variables. For collecting information in the theoretical foundations section, the library method, note-taking, and consultation of Latin sources, books, and articles relevant to the topic will be employed. Data will be obtained from the websites of the Central Bank of Iran, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum. After extracting the research data, the variables will be calculated and processed using Excel spreadsheet software. Subsequently, to perform statistical analysis and derive reliable results for evaluating the shocks, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model will be applied, and the model estimation will be conducted using EViews software.