Providing a Framework for Identifying and Analyzing Drivers Affecting the Future of Banking with an Emphasis on Blockchain

Abstract

Blockchain technology, with its advantages such as reducing intermediaries, controlling costs, and increasing security, has garnered attention from the financial industry. This technology, besides centralizing banking processes, can help improve operational efficiency. This study aims to identify and analyze the drivers influencing the future of banking in Iran, with a focus on blockchain technology. The research is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. Two methods, fuzzy Delphi and Marcus, were used for data analysis. Initially, 29 drivers were extracted through a literature review and interviews with banking experts. Subsequently, nine drivers were selected for final prioritization using the Marcus method after distributing expert questionnaires and screening them with the fuzzy Delphi method. The final drivers were ranked through a questionnaire distribution. The perceived organizational benefits, the compatibility of blockchain technology with the IT systems of the banking sector, the development of RegTech in the country, and the regulatory approaches of lawmakers regarding digital financial technologies were, respectively, identified as the highest-priority drivers. The most important practical recommendations of the study include developing a tool to measure the benefits of blockchain technology, adopting a systemic view towards the implementation of new technologies, making necessary changes before transferring the technology to the banking sector, leveraging RegTech capacities to assess the risks of using digital financial technologies, and ensuring the integration of regulatory policies and comprehensive regulation.