Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Runoff Using Time Series Models in MATLAB
Keywords:
Climate change, runoff, hydrological drought, wavelet analysis, GPR modelingAbstract
In recent decades, climate change has caused substantial transformations in precipitation behavior, runoff intensity, and the stability of hydrological systems. The objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of these changes on precipitation and runoff by employing an advanced computational framework incorporating hydro–climatic process simulation, wavelet analysis, extreme event assessment using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and predictive modeling based on the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Long-term precipitation, temperature, and runoff datasets were used as model inputs, and the drought indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were computed to evaluate climatic and hydrological trends within the study area. The results indicate that the increasing temperature trend has reduced the efficiency of precipitation in generating runoff, and the phenomenon of “warm droughts” has emerged as the primary driver of runoff decline—even during years with normal precipitation. Wavelet analysis reveals a structural shift in precipitation and runoff oscillations and an intensification of climatic instability at shorter temporal scales. Evaluation of GEV parameters further demonstrates a reduction in high-runoff occurrences and an increased probability of rare but severe extreme events. In the modeling component, although SARIMAX successfully captured seasonal behavior and temporal dependencies, the GPR model provided superior accuracy and flexibility in runoff prediction under climate change conditions. The findings of this study demonstrate that climate change not only reduces effective precipitation but also alters the hydrological response structure of the basin, underscoring the necessity of uncertainty-based modeling and multi-scale analysis for future water resource management.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Soroush Setayeshmanesh (Author); Taghi Ebadi (Corresponding author); Reza Maknoon (Author)
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