Factors Influencing and Their Relationships in Platform-Based Insurance Service Providers in Iran

Abstract

This study aims to identify and structurally analyze the key driving forces and critical uncertainties shaping the future of platform-based digital insurance service businesses in Iran. This applied, exploratory–explanatory study adopted a qualitative foresight-oriented design. First, a systematic literature review (2015–2024) was conducted using Scopus, Web of Science, and SID databases to extract initial driving forces. Subsequently, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 20 purposively selected experts from the fields of insurance, fintech, public policy, and digital economy, meeting predefined expertise criteria. Thematic analysis (open, axial, and selective coding) was performed using MAXQDA to refine the drivers. Fifteen driving forces were identified and validated through a classical Delphi process. Experts assessed each driver’s impact and uncertainty using a five-point Likert scale. Structural analysis was then conducted through a 15×15 cross-impact matrix using MICMAC to determine driving power and dependence levels. Drivers were classified into four categories: Drivers, Linkage, Dependent, and Autonomous variables. Based on impact–uncertainty scores and structural positioning, critical uncertainties were extracted and consolidated into two main scenario axes. Results indicate that international sanctions (Mean Impact = 4.9; Uncertainty = 4.8) and political stability (Impact = 4.7; Uncertainty = 4.6) exhibit the highest structural driving power and low dependence, classifying them as primary Drivers. Government policy orientation, exchange rate stability, global fintech developments, and access to advanced technologies were positioned as Linkage variables with both high influence and high dependence, reflecting systemic sensitivity. Dependent variables included digital trust, venture capital investment, purchasing power, digital literacy, and lifestyle change, indicating outcome-oriented dynamics. Autonomous variables such as insurance regulations and internet penetration demonstrated limited structural influence. Two critical uncertainties were ultimately identified: (1) the macro political–international environment and (2) domestic policy orientation and economic stability, forming the basis of a 2×2 scenario matrix. The future trajectory of digital insurance platforms in Iran is more strongly conditioned by the quality and stability of domestic policymaking than by external geopolitical pressures alone. Even under restrictive international conditions, adaptive and innovation-oriented regulation can sustain digital ecosystem growth, whereas internal instability may hinder development despite external openness. The study provides a quantitative-structural foresight framework to support strategic decision-making in Iran’s digital insurance sector.