Estimating the Reliability Model of Supply Centers in Green Value Chain Management of Manufacturing Industries Using the System Dynamics Approach
Keywords:
Supply Center Reliability, Green Value Chain Management, Manufacturing Industries, Green Innovation, Environmental SustainabilityAbstract
The present study was conducted with the aim of estimating a reliability model for supply centers in the green value chain management of manufacturing industries using the system dynamics approach. In terms of purpose, this research is applied, and in terms of nature, it is a descriptive–analytical study. Initially, through a systematic review of the literature, document analysis, and expert consultation, the variables influencing the reliability of the green value chain were identified. Subsequently, the Fuzzy Delphi technique was employed to screen the identified indicators. The results of this stage revealed that ten components—environmental sustainability, operational efficiency, social and ethical responsibility, green innovation management, traceability and transparency, environmental risk management, culture-building and training, policymaking and regulatory compliance, utilization of advanced technologies, and the economic viability of green activities—obtained crisp values above the acceptance threshold and were therefore retained in the final model. Based on these components, the conceptual research model was developed using causal loop diagrams and subsequently transformed into a stock-and-flow model, which was simulated in the Vensim software environment. The modeling results demonstrated that interactions among variables, through reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, shape the dynamic behavior of green value chain reliability. Among these, the “green innovation and sustainability,” “policymaking and environmental risk,” “training, culture, and responsibility,” “economic viability and technology adoption,” and “transparency and supply chain reliability” loops were identified as the most influential feedback structures. Scenario analysis further indicated that strengthening environmental risk management, promoting green innovation, increasing the adoption of advanced technologies, improving transparency, and enhancing organizational culture can contribute to improved environmental sustainability, increased operational efficiency, and greater economic viability of green activities. Moreover, the structural validity of the model was examined and confirmed through boundary adequacy tests, structure assessment, extreme-condition tests, integration error analysis, behavior reproduction tests, and sensitivity analysis. Overall, the findings indicate that the reliability of supply centers within the green value chain is a multidimensional and dynamic phenomenon whose enhancement requires a systemic perspective, coordination among technological, economic, environmental, social, and institutional dimensions, and the implementation of integrated managerial policies.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Arash Rafati (Author); Hassan Mehrmanesh (Corresponding author); Ahmadreza Kasraee (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
